Telecom Trend --
Mobile Social Messaging will drive 2010
Carsten Brinkschulte, CEO of Synchronica
Amid signs of economic recovery, 2010 will be the year when mobile operators worldwide protect their existing revenue channels while exploring new ones. Data services will play an even more important role in 2010, supported by an enlarged mobile messaging landscape that, in addition to SMS, will also encompass mobile email, mobile social networking, and instant messaging (IM). Contrary to many analysts' belief, the device platform landscape will not consolidate, but further diversify as new platforms like Maemo, LiMo and Android take their market share. As the battle between operators, device manufacturers, and internet portals for value-added services (VAS) intensifies, operators will play their strongest card - their billing relationship with the user.
1. The Battle Between Handset Manufacturers, Portals, and Mobile Operators Will Intensify
In 2010, the battle for supremacy in value-added services will intensify in the triangle between mobile operators, device manufacturers, and internet portals. Over the past few years, operators increasingly have come under attack in particular from device manufacturers like Apple, RIM, and Nokia who are massively pushing device-specific services, differentiating their product offerings, establishing direct relationships with the end-users and locking them into services hosted by the manufacturers.
Premier examples of device manufacturer-specific and –dependent services are Apple's App Store, MobileMe, iTunes, RIM's BlackBerry Internet Services, as well as Nokia's OVI. These services are very attractive to the end-user as they offer a great user experience and unique functionality, but they also present a threat to mobile operators which are increasingly at risk of becoming dumb bit pipes. If the mobile operators don't fight back, all they will be left with is to provide the data transport and their differentiation will be reduced to price per megabyte and speed of data transmission. Operators would be sharing the fate of ISPs who have faced the results - dramatic price wars and increasing churn rates.
Some industry observers have pointed towards Google's Android as the white horse that would create an equal-level playing field, and some operators are endorsing this allegedly open platform. However, Google, like Apple, really wants to be the premier value-added service provider, and, not surprisingly, Android phones by default point to Gmail for email, Google Talk for instant messaging and (of course) to Google's search engine and application store - again reducing the role of mobile operators to deliver the bits.
However, the war is not over yet. Operators can fight back and remain in the driving seat for value-added services by promoting operator-hosted and device-neutral value-added services. Their chances of winning are quite good, in particular in emerging economies where internet services have yet to take off in the mass market. A trump card of mobile operators is their billing relationship with the end-user and their ability to control the pricing for services. For example, operators can ensure success of their own email service by offering a flat rate for accessing the operator-hosted email while charging volume-based fees for accessing internet email, using their billing relationship as an 'unfair' advantage.
2. The Diversification of Mobile Device Platforms Leads to an Increasingly Heterogeneous Landscape
Just a few years ago, analysts were predicting a radical consolidation among mobile device platforms with only two or three platforms controlling the majority of the market. Of course, these analysts were completely wrong, and the industry has taken an entirely different direction. Now it seems that about two to three new device platforms are introduced every year, leading to further diversification and an increasingly heterogeneous device landscape.
Over the past few years, the industry saw the introduction of the Apple iPhone, the Google Android platform and, more as a side note, the Palm WebOS. In 2010, we will see a plethora of Android devices from various manufacturers and Nokia introducing their first Maemo devices based on the Linux operating system. Others are expected to also bet on LiMo, including NEC, Panasonic, and Samsung who introduced the first Vodafone 360 handset based on this Linux platform. Nokia's Symbian continues to command about 40 percent of the smartphone market, and RIM remains with their closed proprietary platform. Windows Mobile, which once was supposed to be one of the few remaining platforms and a main consolidator, seems to be dwarfed, leaving Microsoft's platform with a single digit market share.
On top of that, the industry continues to use a wide variety of proprietary operating systems in their mass market feature phones which, despite common belief, will continue to represent the vast majority of devices shipping to market for the next few years.
All of these platforms have a completely different runtime environment, incompatible with any other platform. This increasingly heterogeneous device landscape is presenting a growing problem for developers of messaging applications, in particular for those which require proprietary client software to be downloaded and installed on the handset. While these proprietary solutions can offer impressive functionality due to their end-to-end-integrated architecture, their developers are facing a Sisyphean task of having to develop and maintain clients for an ever increasing number of incompatible platforms. Once touted as an answer to this problem, Sun's Java (J2ME) does no longer present a complete solution as it is not supported in many new platforms (Apple iPhone, Android, WebOS do not support J2ME).
The only viable solution to the issue of heterogeneous platforms seems to be the use of industry standards for delivery of messaging services. Just like literally every phone supports SMS and MMS, almost all platforms support IMAP for email, and the majority supports SyncML for synchronization. During 2010, messaging solutions which are based on open industry standards will thrive while proprietary platforms will start to see the limits of their success.
3. Emerging Markets Will Lead the Mobile Internet Revolution
While most users in Europe, the U.S., and other 'old' markets are using their mobile devices as a secondary access channel to internet services, and consequently mobile operators are struggling to defend their walled gardens, operators in emerging markets are starting to capitalize on a unique opportunity. With the PC and fixed-line penetration remaining low, the mobile phone penetration is soaring in emerging economies. This means that many users in these regions will have their first contact with internet services via their mobile phone, creating a unique opportunity for mobile operators to establish the mobile phone as the primary access device and themselves as the value-added service provider.
Subscribers in emerging markets are hungry for data services, and if carriers carefully choose their suppliers, and price the services attractively, they can see fast take-up rates, generate substantial revenues and prevent churn by binding users to attractive mass market services like email and instant messaging.
However, operators in emerging markets must make sure that the services they select actually can be consumed by the vast majority of their subscribers, avoid solutions which support only a small number of devices (e.g. require a smartphone), and ensure the services are affordable for the average user. If operators select services that support the entire device landscape, price the services with affordable flat rates and promote the usage with SMS campaigns, we will see emerging markets lead the mobile internet revolution with millions of subscribers - replicating the success of SMS.
4. Mobile Email Will Grow Dramatically in the Consumer Space and Messaging Will Diversify
2010 will see operators diversifying revenue streams beyond what they had typically considered to be their foremost killer applications - voice and SMS. Across all markets, developed, as well as emerging, operators will package an array of mobile messaging services to accommodate the needs of diverse subscriber segments, but using a device-neutral approach.
Mobile messaging will contribute strongly to the expected data revenue growth next year. ABI Research projected that within three years, global revenues from mobile messaging will reach USD 212 billion.
Mobile messaging is generally a valuable and addictive service that holds mass market appeal with large potential and room for innovation. While operators have historically relied mainly on SMS, consumer mobile email still remains a largely untapped service with large potential. 2010 will see mass market consumer mobile email expand significantly as operators are introducing affordable push email services supporting mass market devices. Mobile email, instant messaging, and social networking are providing massive opportunities for operators to exploit and diversify their revenue streams.
5. Standards-based Instant Messaging Will Have the World Nudging and Buzzing
In what could become the most exciting prospect of 2010, standards-based mobile instant messaging services are finally becoming more commonplace. Thanks to standardization, a greater amount of people will be able to access their IM accounts by simply using their current mobile phones.
Highly popular amongst teenagers, 1.6 billion people will use IM services by 2012 according to industry analysts. Mobile IM will emerge as an important service addition for operators who wish to offer the full spectrum of mobile messaging options.
Until now, handset compatibility has been the single greatest barrier to mobile IM. An early study by Capgemini revealed that 19 percent of mobile subscribers who were interested accessing their IM service via their mobile phones were unable to do so because their handset did not support it.
By delivering IM through existing and established technologies, such as SMS and MMS for basic handsets, as well as the industry standard IMPS for mid- to high-end handsets, compatibility will no longer be a barrier. Finally, IM will be fully accessible to all, and the world will be nudging and buzzing from their phones!
6. Social Networking Will Generate Mobile Social Messaging
The unprecedented success of social networking is already well documented. Facebook, for example, has a staggering 150 million users from every continent around the world including Antarctica! Almost half of Facebook's users use the service daily in 35 different languages.
Social networking services are fast becoming important repositories of personal information. In 2010, we will see the emergence of mobile services which will synchronize these social networking services to mobile phones.
Ultimately, mobile numbers and email addresses of social networking contacts will be synchronized. There will also be improved facilities to read and update status updates and send messages to contacts, using a regular mobile phone. 2010 will see a surge in mobile social networking, and mobile operators will play a key role in delivering these services.
Instant messaging and email are also largely being embedded into social networks, so it makes perfect sense for operators to deploy mobile social messaging services which enable users to stay in touch with their friends on Facebook and Twitter.
Also read....
Synchronica – enabling push mail solutions from class to mass
Exclusive Interview of CEO of Synchronica Mr. Carsten Brinkschulte |
