Telecom Analysis -- beyond news

• Mobile broadband to be worth $137 billion by 2014
  Newly released mobile broadband forecasts by global advisory and consulting firm Ovum, show that users accessing the Internet via mobile broadband enabled laptops and handsets will generate revenues of $137 billion globally in 2014, over 450% more than in 2008.
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• Cisco anticipates the unified data centre
  Tim Stammers, senior analyst at Ovum
  One of the biggest reasons why Cisco is hugely successful at selling networking gear is that it provides customers with one set of tools to manage their entire data centre networks. Cisco knows that to keep that advantage it will have to manage much more than just the networks.
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• FTTH deployments contribute to higher quality of life, productivity, employment and public services
  For immediate release, February 27, 2009. Ovum recently completed a study into the socio-economic impact of European FTTH deployments undertaken with the FTTH Council Europe. The study is the first of its kind to closely investigate how FTTH enables socio-economic growth in European communities and municipalities
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• iPhone in China: China Mobile or China Unicom?
  Sherrie Huang, analyst, Ovum
  The iPhone distribution negotiations between Apple and China Mobile were first reported in 2007. While many expected to see the two shake hands, no deal has yet been announced and it is now rumoured that Apple will partner with China Unicom instead. What is interesting is how the competitive environment will influence any cooperation.
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• FTTH deployments contribute to higher quality of life, productivity, employment and public services
  Jeremy Green, Mobile Director, Ovum
  Ovum recently completed a study into the socio-economic impact of European FTTH deployments undertaken with the FTTH Council Europe. The study is the first of its kind to closely investigate how FTTH enables socio-economic growth in European communities and municipalities, and the results were presented at the FTTH European conference in Copenhagen, Denmark on February 11, 2009.
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• Visto acquires Good Technology from Motorola
  Jeremy Green, Mobile Director, Ovum
  Motorola is presenting its decision as part of a strategic re-focusing, saying that it ‘will allow Motorola to continue to concentrate on providing best-in-class business-critical applications, secure management platforms and mobility services’ – a category that presumably no longer includes mobile push email.
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• Glimmers of hope in 4Q08 telco vendor results
  Matt Walker, principal analyst at Ovum
  Most significant telecoms vendors have now announced earnings for the last quarter of 2008. Overall results were bleak, especially in the year’s last few months. Tight telco capex budgets, weak handset demand, and costly credit are forcing vendors to write down assets, announce layoffs, and preserve cash.
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• BT takes £340 million charge on Global Services
  John O'Brien, senior analyst at Ovum
  BT Group is taking a write-down of £340 million in the third quarter to cover a shortfall in earnings on some of its 17 largest Global Services (BTGS) contracts. It is still reviewing two of the 17 contracts, one of which is thought to be BT’s London National Health Service (NHS) local service provider (LSP) contract, which could reportedly also incur a write-down in the hundreds of millions of pounds.
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• 15MHz of 3G spectrum to be allocated in three lots in France
  Julien Grivolas, principal analyst at Ovum
  After a series of announcements regarding the allocation of a fourth 3G licence in France, the French government has revealed in a press release that instead of the single 15MHz licence that was originally proposed it has decided to split the spectrum into three lots of 5MHz, with one lot being reserved for a new entrant.
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• Broadband remains a ‘sticky’ service
  Michael Philpott, principal analyst at Ovum
  One possible scenario for the telecoms industry during the current economic slowdown is that fixed-to-mobile substitution (FMS) will be accelerated as consumers reduce their communications bill by cutting their fixed line in favour of mobile services. With mobile broadband deals now more readily available and affordable, there is a potential ‘double whammy’ to this in that fixed line operators could not only lose further fixed voice revenues but valuable broadband revenues as well.
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• With mobile broadband, who needs an NBN
  Nathan Burley, Analyst at Ovum
  According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 45% of broadband connections in Australia were at speeds below 1.5Mbps in June 2008. The average download amount across all broadband connections in Australia is 3.4GB per month. However, the small proportion of high-usage connections inflates this figure.
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• New Ovum report says 40G market moves to generalized deployment phase
  Ron Kline, Research Director at Ovum
  After many years of waiting the 40G market is finally moving to a generalized deployment phase. Consumer demand, mostly driven by video, is stressing network capacities and as long as this dynamic stays in place, 40G deployments will continue to see healthy growth,” said Ron Kline, Research Director, at Ovum and author of this latest 40G/100G analysis by Ovum.
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• The Mobile World in 2013 - it’s all about emerging markets and emerging players
  Steven Hartley, Senior Analyst at Ovum
  We do not expect the growth potential for China and India to recede over the next five years. It is these two markets, along with rapidly growing markets such as Bangladesh, which will power 77% connections growth between 2008 and 2013 in the China-India region. However, we are not being overly bullish, as penetration for the region is forecast at just 6 7% – over double the rate for 2007, but lower than every region except Africa in 2013.
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• Asia Pacific service provider switching and routing equipment sales grew 38% compared with 3Q07
  Ovum today posted its analysis of Asia Pacific third quarter 2008 service provider switching and routing equipment sales. Sales in 3Q08 grew to $1.0 billion overall, a 38% increase compared to 3Q07 and a 2% increase sequentially.
  3Q08 AP highlights for technology-focused market segments......
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• A growing need for managed mobility services
  Pauline Trotter & Claudio Castelli, Analyst at Ovum
  Managed mobility services are currently used by few of the companies we spoke to, but 60% of respondents to this survey said that they are planning to use managed mobile services contracts within the next two years. They see the most important components of managed mobility service as being the billing and analysis tools, management of contracts with multiple mobile network operators and device management.
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• Challenges faced in 2009
  David Kennedy, Research Director (Asia-Pacific) at Ovum
  “Ovum does not expect the crisis to hit Asia as hard as the US, but declining US domestic demand will certainly affect Asian exporters and hence the rest of the economy. That includes telcos,” said Mr Kennedy. The impact on the telco sector will be mixed. Slowing economies will hit revenue growth, increasing short-term pressure to cut costs. “We expect many planned infrastructure projects to be delayed or cancelled in 2009”, advised Kennedy.
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• Ovum reports optical components revenues grew 5% sequentially in 2Q08, up 23% compared with 2Q07
  Daryl Inniss, Practice Leader at Ovum
  Preliminary results from Ovum’s quarterly optical components market tracking indicate that the Optical Components market posted its fourth consecutive quarter of single-digit growth with an increase of 5% sequentially. “Impressively, the market posted a 23% gain over the same period last year, in part because 2Q07 was hard-hit by inventory corrections,” says Daryl Inniss, Ovum Practice Leader and author of the study.
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• Mobility in the core of UC
  Claudio Castelli, Senior Analyst at Ovum
  Ovum, the analyst and consulting company, believes that the UC benefit for mobile users will come from the greater communication flexibility and efficiency. Users on the move will be able to complete time-sensitive tasks that involve several people, either inside or outside of an enterprise organization. Contacts will be accessible at anytime, anywhere, by the most efficient communication way. In addition, the next step in UC will also link critical business applications, offering more capability to mobile users.
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• A growing need for managed mobility services
  Pauline Trotter & Claudio Castelli, Analyst at Ovum
  Mobile service providers are still falling short of multinationals’ enterprise mobility needs. The gap between these multinationals’ priorities and their current mobile service provider’s capability remains significant. Interest in managed services and outsourcing contracts for mobility has continued to grow over the past year – earlier this year we found that managed mobility is the main focus of new sourcing plans within multinationals.
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• Mobile Internet: which services and business models will prevail
  Michele Mackenzie, Service Manager and Practice Leader at ovum
  Ovum's report on growing revenues from the mobile Internet is now published. The focus of much of our recent research has been on mobile broadband and fast mobile Internet access via laptop and a USB modem -or dongle, as they are known. This is of course at the core of mobile operator strategies right now as operators seek to drive revenue growth from flat-rate (or nearly flat-rate) access packages.
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• Mobile Network Operators revenues undented by credit crunch
  Emeka Obiodu, senior analyst at Ovum
  Ovum’s report tracked the revenue growth trends of Europe’s leading mobile operators in the region’s biggest markets from 2007 to date. It reveals that overall, Mobile Network Operator (MNO) revenues have grown steadily. The revenue growth rate pattern in France, Germany and Italy suggests the operators are actually improving revenues. This is in contrast with operators in Spain which show evidence of sustained decline in revenue growth rates. The United Kingdom’s is mixed.
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• Ofcom’s mobile sector assessment
  Matthew Howett, analyst at Ovum
  Ofcom, the UK’s national regulator, recently launched the first phase of what it calls an ‘open and candid’ debate on the future of mobile regulation. It is not a specific proposal for regulatory change but rather an opportunity for operators and consumers to shape the future regulation of the sector. Yet how mobile termination will be regulated after 2011 is already threatening to dominate the debate.
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• AT&T’s Innovation Day highlights a challenge for telcos
  Jan Dawson, Practice Leader at Ovum
  AT&T held an ‘Innovation Day’ on Monday in New York, which was designed to showcase innovative new technology from AT&T’s labs. Jan Dawson, Practice Leader at leading global consulting and advisory firm, Ovum, says today’s telcos need to be thinking less about doing their own R&D and more about creating open networks where innovation can flourish through partnerships.
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