Applied For Your Indian Cellular License?
BRAHAM SINGH
CEO RED SNAPPER,
The August 2007 TRAI document inciting a mad rush for cellular licenses also contained ample caution against precisely such a lemming-like approach for those who cared to read. Visible to jaundiced eyes however was nothing but the recommendation against capping number of service providers. One would expect more astuteness from those who aren’t an incumbent’s proxy or in queue to sell-off acquired spectrum to one.
What they should’ve noticed is the mention in Para 4.2 under tedious meanderings on convergence that revenue ratios have gradually tilted in favour of value added services particularly non voice services. That’s a heads-up there for the wise if ever there was one. More in-your-face is the very first graph encountered in Chapter 2 on the marquee topic of “Entry Limit In Access Service Provision”.
Showing nose diving ARPUs the good news though is mitigation through a phenomenal increase in subscribers. Followed by a pie-chart with more bad news that 92% of these subs are owned by big business muscle you’d not want to take on even on a good day.
It gets worse when one tries learning about the remaining 8%. Annex III of TRAI’s compendious document shows that 8% in the hands of companies grandfathered by luminaries already owning the 92%, the exceptions being Spice (Modi Group) and Aircel (owned by the Malaysian company Maxis). In Hong Kong I personally witnessed the Modi Group decimate a venerable Hong Kong company to usurp Spice. There’s no cake-walk here for anyone plotting a grab of their market share however meager. Similarly for the newcomer planning to take on Aircel’s legendary Ananda Krishnan the sound advice would be to walk away.
The difference between risk and suicide is timing. Sunil Mittal took a risk with cellular voice in 1998. Doing the same today is suicide. If there is succour for the wannabe it lies in that little statistic from Chapter 4 suggesting the only way to toggle ARPU out of its nose dive is through data services. But the bad news is Mr.Mittal knows it and has 3G all planned out. The good news is that 3G is somewhat of a disappointment when it comes to high speeds for data. The bad news is that Mr.Mittal knows that too and plans to use 3G to offer whatever data services are possible at those speeds and also use the 3G spectrum for voice services from which he – not the new comer – will continue to make money.
The above process of elimination clearly suggests that while a possible way out is through data services, it cannot be over WCDMA/cellular type air interface and that while that does leave OFDMA type air interfaces as viable options, non-cellular wireless broadband is nowhere on the radar screen for the vast majority of new applicants as evident from the spectrum they requested. Overwhelmingly and almost without exception the requests were for 2G spectrum showing mindsets very comfortable in a rut leading over the cliff.
BRAHAM SINGH is CEO of RED SNAPPER, a Malaysian Government initiative to create an Asian pool of expertise in wireless broadband. Red Snapper's current focus is in Malaysia and India.
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